Fitch Solutions Predicts Victory for John Mahama and the NDC in 2024 Elections

In a surprising twist ahead of Ghana’s December 2024 general elections, the London-based research and data firm, Fitch Solutions, has projected a victory for former President John Mahama and the National Democratic Congress (NDC). This prediction, grounded in economic realities and voter sentiment, marks a significant shift in the political landscape.

Fitch Solutions’ mid-year review for Sub-Saharan Africa reveals that 54% of surveyed respondents favour John Mahama over the incumbent New Patriotic Party (NPP). This consistent forecast since last year underscores the growing discontent among Ghanaians over the state of the economy.

Mike Kruiniger, Associate Director of Country Risk at Fitch Solutions, elaborated on the findings, stating, “We believe that the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) has a stronger chance of winning the upcoming general elections compared to the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP). Recent polls consistently place the NDC ahead, with the most recent survey showing 54% of respondents favouring the NDC.”

Kruiniger pointed out that voters are primarily concerned with economic management and job creation. “Economic hardships have significantly influenced public opinion,” he said. “Voters are looking for solutions to the economic challenges that have persisted over the last few years, and this is where the NDC appears to have an edge.”

Ghana’s economy has been under strain, with rising inflation, unemployment, and a depreciating currency creating widespread dissatisfaction. The NPP government, led by President Akufo-Addo, has faced criticism for its handling of these issues, which many believe has not improved the living standards of ordinary Ghanaians.

Fitch Solutions’ analysis suggests that the NDC’s promises of economic reform and job creation resonate more with the electorate. The firm also noted that the NDC’s campaign strategy, focusing on addressing the immediate economic concerns of Ghanaians, has been effective in gaining public support.

Political analysts in Ghana have taken note of Fitch Solutions’ report, recognising it as a credible assessment of the current political climate. Dr. Amanda Nyame, a political science lecturer at the University of Ghana, commented, “Fitch Solutions’ prediction is significant. It reflects the general sentiment on the ground. The NPP has an uphill battle to regain the confidence of the electorate.”

As the election draws nearer, both parties are ramping up their campaigns. The NDC, buoyed by Fitch Solutions’ report, is emphasising its track record and plans for economic recovery. Meanwhile, the NPP is working to counter this narrative by highlighting its achievements and outlining future strategies to stabilise the economy.

With the stakes higher than ever, Ghana’s December 2024 election is shaping up to be a defining moment in the nation’s history. As economic issues take centre stage, the outcome will hinge on which party can convincingly address the pressing needs of the people.